The Bourse Weekly Performance (Week-ended 30th August 2013)

The Bourse Weekly Performance (Week-ended 30^th August 2013)

	Week-ended 23rd August 2013	Week-ended 30th August 2013
All Share Price Index	5,951.83	5,834.04
S&P SL20 Index	3,342.96	3,261.33
Total Turnover for the week (Rs.)	3,715,349,258/-	2,427,574,218/-
Total Net Foreign Inflow/ (Outflow) (Rs.)	1,021,289,824/-	186,063,267/-
Market Capitalisation (Rs.)	2,451,390,332,928/-	2,402,882,748,421/-
Market PER	16.90	16.59

The Colombo bourse fell drastically this week and reached its near 5 month-low figures. The ASPI reached its lowest for the week on Wednesday 5753 a figure last seen on 4^th April 2013. This week saw the LKR reach its all time low levels which was considered as the main cause for the dipping bourse. Market heavy weight JKH, was seen dragging the bourse to low levels even though it announced a mega rights issue inclusive of warrants to finance plan the biggest-ever private sector project of US$650 Million.

The market performance saw the ASI and S&P indices losing a total of 117 and 81 points respectively, while the loss was equivalent to Rs.48 Billion in market capitalization. However, turnover remained 35% lower than previous week while the average daily turnover for the week was recorded at Rs.485 Million (the average daily turnover for the year is Rs.906 Million). Highest contributors for the weekly turnover were counters such as JKH, Sampath Bank, Commercial Bank, NDB, Distilleries, etc which were seen to be heavily traded. In sector statistics, the highest contribution for the weekly turnover came in from the Banking Finance and Insurance and Diversified Holdings sectors. The week saw JKH share price dropping over 11% to close at 214, which also resulted in the Diversified Holdings sector index reporting the highest loss for the week. The biggest gainer this week was the Information Technology sector.

Reuters reports indicate that though there are concerns over the US policy on Syria, the dollar continues to grow stronger, while Bloomberg reported that, Derivatives traders are expecting Federal Reserve to reduce stimulus as soon as next month. The dramatic world markets and the uncertainty of the domestic currency led foreigners to be net sellers during mid week with a notable amount of foreign outflows. However, the situation is seen to be common to most South Asian markets, and MSCI index indicate that the Colombo bourse has out-performed the South Asian market index which records a month to date yield of -9.91% as opposed to the -3.37% recorded at the Colombo bourse. Year to date the Colombo bourse still generate gains of 3.39% as opposed to a -10.89% in the South Asian index. The 14 day RSI is 33.54 suggesting a near over sold situation where the losses generated at the bourse is greater than the gains.

The Bourse Weekly Performance (Week-ended 23rd August 2013)

The Bourse Weekly Performance (Week-ended 23^rd August 2013)

	Week-ended 16th August 2013	Week-ended 23rd August 2013
All Share Price Index	6,233.21	5,951.83
S&P SL20 Index	3,491.55	3,342.96
Total Turnover for the week (Rs.)	3,964,732,407/-	3,715,349,258/-
Total Net Foreign Inflow/ (Outflow) (Rs.)	988,800,070/-	1,021,289,824/-
Market Capitalisation (Rs.)	2,567,268,096,981/-	2,451,390,332,928/-
Market PER	17.65	16.90

Investor sentiments were dented this week at the Colombo bourse due to concerns over rupee volatility and earning fears as pointed out by many analysts. The total market declined 4.51% in ASPI and in market cap. The ASPI fell and closed below the psychological threshold of 6000 points on the last trading day of the week.

Net foreign buying for the year surpassed Rs. 18 Million this week. Foreign interest was seen in Banking Finance and Insurance sector counters such as Sampath Bank, Commercial Bank, HNB, Diversified Holdings sector counters such as JKH, SPEN along with CTC. These two favorite sectors together contributed for 87% of the weekly turnover which was en par with the turnover generated the previous week. This week the Colombo bourse maintained its average daily turnover of Rs. 920 Million. All sectors recorded losses for the week except the Information Technology and Oil Palms sectors while the biggest loser for the week was the Beverage Food and Tobacco sector as CTC closed 18.5% lower than its close for the previous week.

Experts explain the changing global conditions in the world economy are a significant contributor to the negativity building up at the bourse. Reuters reported that the US bond yields were seen to be rising backed by tapering of the US stimulation programme soon creating an appetite to buy US assets. Reports indicated that most Asian stock markets and currencies are likely to be hit hard after the Fed Reserve policy meeting held Thursday. As suggested in reports, many Asian stock markets such as Jakarta, Comp (-8%), Straits Times (-3%), S&P CNX Nifty (-0.6%) were seen to decline this week fuelled by the rising dollar and US monetary policy changes. MSCI benchmark indices were all seen to be in the red, thus justifying the Rs. 115 Billion loss in market cap for the week at the Colombo bourse. CSE still managed to generate year to date gains which have now fallen to single digit figures, 5% in ASPI and 8% in market cap.

The Bourse Weekly Performance (Week-ended 16th August 2013)

The Bourse Weekly Performance (Week-ended 16^th August 2013)

	Week-ended 8th August 2013	Week-ended 16th August 2013
All Share Price Index	6,151.92	6,233.21
S&P SL20 Index	3,470.16	3,491.55
Total Turnover for the week (Rs.)	1,830,598,700/-	3,964,732,407/-
Total Net Foreign Inflow/ (Outflow) (Rs.)	362,432,830/-	988,800,070/-
Market Capitalisation (Rs.)	2,367,495,396,561/-	2,567,268,096,981/-
Market PER	16.28	17.65

This week the Colombo bourse gained 81 and 21 points in terms of the ASI and S&P indices respectively equivalent to 1.32% and 0.62%. CTC being setting the record of being the most valuable listed corporate in the country drove the market to its highest close since 12^th June 2013. The total gain in market capitalization is Rs. 199.72 Billion for the week ended 16^th Aug 2013 creating a year to date return of 18% in market cap. CTC surpassed JKH which was considered the market valuable listed company when its market cap increased by Rs. 31Billion (approx.) for the week.

Turnover levels increased backed by foreign interest, who were seen to be net buyers contributing Rs. 17.3 Billion year to date.  However, the average daily turnover this week failed to reach Rs. 919Million reported for the year. Though foreign buying and increase in CTC market cap was seen to be driving an if not a dull market, brokers indicate that the trend is unlikely to sustain to the future, given the absence of retail interest. Regardless of the interest seen in CTC, Banking Finance and Insurance and Diversified Holdings sectors, contributed for 76% of the weekly turnover. The Beverage Food and Tobacco sector was seen to have achieved a weekly gain of 7% while the highest loss of 10% was once again in the Information Technology sector.

On Thursday, CBSL announced that policy rates would remain unchanged while the weekly Treasury bill auction saw the average yields drop by only 1-3bps across all maturities. Investors continue to watch the market in anticipation of a possible direction in the midst of rising concerns.

The Bourse Weekly Performance (Week-ended 8th August 2013)

The Bourse Weekly Performance (Week-ended 8^th August 2013)

	Week-ended 2nd August 2013	Week-ended 8th August 2013
All Share Price Index	6,155.82	6,151.92
S&P SL20 Index	3,490.57	3,470.16
Total Turnover for the week (Rs.)	4,005,800,509/-	1,830,598,700/-
Total Net Foreign Inflow/ (Outflow) (Rs.)	(970,643,041/-)	362,432,830/-
Market Capitalisation (Rs.)	2,368,995,327,315/-	2,367,495,396,561/-
Market PER	16.29	16.28

The overall weekly performance at the Colombo bourse showed mixsed sentiments during the week while concerns over a weakening rupee and high lending rates continued to worry investors, and the activity levels in the market remained low. The performance of the main market index ASI was moving in the red and the green, before closing for the week almost unchanged from previous week. The total loss in the ASI and S&P for the week was 3.9 and 20.4 points respectively while the ASI is at its one-week high value.

Turnover levels remained low compared to the previous week while the average daily turnover for the week was Rs. 457.6 Million. The previous week recorded an average daily turnover of Rs. 801.1 Million while the average daily turnover for 2013 thus far is Rs. 924.2 Million. Unlike other-weeks, turnover was not dominated by a single sector and the highest contribution of 23.2% for the weekly turnover came from the Manufacturing sector. Beverage Food and Tobacco, Banking Finance and Insurance and Diversified Holding sectors all contributed 19.4%, 19.1% and 16.2% respectively.  The key blue-chips that contributed for the weekly turnover were Chevron, JKH, Distilleries, Access Engineering and Nestle. In sector statistics the highest gain was recorded in the Beverage Food and Tobacco sector (+3.08%), while the highest loss was recorded in the Information Technology sector (-3.07%). Foreigners were recorded as net buyers this week, and the counters that were identified as the top net inflow counters were; Nestle, Distilleries, JKH, Commercial Bank, DFCC, HNB, Carsons, etc. The net foreign inflow for 2013 is Rs. 16.3 Billion.

The Colombo bourse currently records and year to date gain of 9.22%, much greater than the year to date gains currently reported in ‘MSCI emerging markets’ (-11.12%). While the market P/E is also higher than its peers such as ‘MSCI emerging markets’ as well as ‘MSCI frontier markets’. The current trailing P/E of the Colombo bourse is 16.28X.